The international tangles and disputes have a habit of getting more and more complex without any real movement either way; the South China Seas issues are also similar; due to very real and visible reasons that seem very easy to tackle, solutions are suggested but, in the end, nothing moves.
Nobody wanted to bell the cat but someone did; all were waiting impatiently for the judgment of ITLOS and it came. Opinions are offered but, on the ground, nothing moves.
The reason is simple; in international diplomacy, everything that is said is not meant, nor is it meant to be practiced.
But, this tension is so thick that it can only go one way; lip service seems to be ruling the roost in ASEAN.
A dilly-dallying situation was continuing since a long time during which China was carrying on like a juggernaut and was creating islands out of the sea bed using small atolls and perking them up with concrete to make them strong enough to create infrastructure and to occupy them for storage and housing of military facilities.
While ASEAN countries and other regional countries did not do anything tangible, Manila took the step of approaching the Permanent Court of Arbitration at The Hague but could not get it to accept the case since its rules require all the involved parties to present their sides of the story.
But, with China remaining adamant and not agreeing to participate in any deliberations on the subject, there was only one option for Manila and that was to approach the International Tribunal for the Laws of the Seas (ITLOS) which was functioning under the aegis of The United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The Philippines, while submitting the appeal to the UN body, used strategic caution in framing their case making it in the shape of a clarification rather than a specific complaint against their Chinese neighbors; this was the first time that anyone had dared to challenge the belligerent moves of the Chinese.
And, the Chinese response was again vehement; they declared that, whatever the outcome, China will not accept the ruling of any tribunal or other authority.
Even as the initiative was underway ASEAN was playing the waiting game as it is now; the policies are not of any use to anybody particularly after they could not even get a consensus within the forum.
The initiatives are beginning even amidst the games that such diplomats play, China has asked Manila to keep the judgment of the tribunal aside if it wanted talks.
But, Duterte has asked the former President of the Philippines, Fidel Ramos to be his envoy in the talks with China; the same has been accepted by Ramos as he is now fit.
The experts speak
Now that the stalemate situation continues, there have been remarks by some international experts in legal and regional affairs stating that, the way the situation was evolving; there was an enhanced risk of the escalation of the conflict.
The idea was floated by experts Heazle and supported by Sumathy Permal at the second edition of the South China Sea Conference that was organized at Hotel Manila on Wednesday.
It is the opinion of these experts that the weak unity in the ASEAN was the main reason why the Chinese will take advantage and continue amassing military infrastructure and hardware in the South China Sea.
The senior researcher at the Malaysian Maritime Institute, Sumathy Permal opined that only a unified approach by ASEAN could prevent China from consolidating its hold on the maritime trade and the domination in these important trade routes; the absence of unity could have the following consequences:
- The conflicts between China and the major powers are likely to be more frequent due to the Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ),
- The Plans to build Chinese Marine Nuclear Plants will be a reality, and
- The frequent irritating military exercises by the Chinese military will continue unabated.
The Foreign Ministers of ASEAN countries are to blame for the uncertain situation since they have not been able to speak up in a united voice since 2012; the reason being that only four countries who are members of ASEAN have ongoing disputed claims in the waters of the South China Seas.
The Filipino representatives led by the Foreign Affairs Secretary Perfecto Jr. have given it their all in the meeting at Vientiene, Laos but ASEAN did not budge; they refused to make a mention of the ITLOS judgment which is a monumental event for the region.
Heazle was convinced that unity was the only viable option; keeping aside their varying views, the ASEAN members should project one unified view.
Otherwise, there is a real possibility of the United States and its allies trying to intervene.
That is the only way to obviate tension and conflagration of the issues.
Umrao Singh umraoz.wordpress.com
Written for: Lars-Magnus Carlsson www.thephilippinepride.com?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss
The post POLITICS: ASEAN indifference – A potential for conflict appeared first on The Philippine Pride.