The days of sanctions imposed by the United States of America against Iran, are now over; still, the clouds of doubts, uncertainty and mistrust might not have fully cleared.

The advent of Iran to the mainstream is throwing up some awesome economic possibilities for the countries who would like to develop commercial dealings with this cash-rich nation.

For the global markets, this translates into a whole Pandora’s box of possibilities opening up for the oil-rich nation to look around and spend its cash on vital inventory items that it had been unable to procure due to the strict implementation and enforcement of the sanctions.

Now that the Iranian authorities have reached an agreement with the IAEA and the world powers to regulate its nuclear activities in accordance with international controls and transparency, the near future is likely to see an upsurge in the commercial activities of the Iranians to use their finances to acquire whatever it was not able to procure officially while the sanctions were in force.

With the restrictions no more prevailing over the United States and other world powers from selling all their precious wares, Iran has emerged a priced catch for selling all sorts of goods  from the global markets ranging from aircraft to tourism to oil; the effort is clearly on to improve the hazy image of the Iranian regime and people.

And, it would seem that the US businesses stand to gain some very hefty and lucrative deals, if all goes well.

Now, it has emerged that the Iranians have inked a deal with Boeing to supply their airlines with about 100 planes; while the details are yet to be revealed to the public; it is also known that there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding the different aspects of the deal; that is not all, the proposed deal has almost run into a solid wall of opposition from some very powerful and determined quarters.

The size of this deal is such that no country would like to miss it but the word out in the financial circles is that the deal is still facing some dark clouds since the federal government will still have to take a conscious decision after consideration of all the factors carefully.

If this huge deal goes through, it will be the first one between Iran and an American company post lifting of sanctions; it will also be a record in terms of the magnitude.

It is the second such deal entered into by Iran which has been mooted to uplift the tottering airlines which are in a state of decay, badly needing an injection of modernization; there is already one order in the pipeline under which Airbus, the French manufacturer of aircraft.

This is part of the Iranian government’s resolve to catch up with the latest technology so that its nascent airlines can do some justice to upgrade with an adequate augmentation of the fleet.

This will also be a shot in the arm for the travel and tourism industry while making domestic and international travel more comfortable; no wonder Iran is going all out and its excitement is abundantly displayed in the manner that these commercial deals are being pursued.

The situation is still not clear since neither the management of Boeing nor the cautious responses of the government representatives are conveying anything final since officials are still wary about giving an opinion.

The matter involving Iran and the US is pretty sensitive since, even now, the relations have not thawed enough to be absolutely confident in speaking; there still exists a chance that any disclosures about the matter may force them into a controversy because we do not yet know as to which side the camel will sit.

Moreover, there has been some opposition to the proposal which still hangs in the balance even though the subject airplanes are only to meet civilian demand; aircraft for military use are still not on.

On the other hand, Iran has been very open and enthusiastic about the deal even though observing the guarded responses of the other side, it may be quite premature, even immature.

One thing is certain, this is a prestigious and lucrative deal and even the United States authorities are aware of it; there is a lot of mileage in it for Iran too since signing the deal will catapult Iran to the position of a major player on the global level.

The Opposition

The brewing storm over the deal is gathering steam with the first voices of opposition to this deal becoming more open and louder with each passing day that the topic remains in suspense.

Neither has any positive indications been given nor is any indication given by the authorities on any negative sentiments that may be prevailing; observers feel that, perhaps, a decision id pending only to assess the strength of the storm that seems to be brewing in the corridors of power, both domestic and international.

The considered opinions of the allies are also starting to come in overtly and in private discussions. But, it is reported that the rumblings in Congress had already started on Wednesday.

It is known that the Iranians are quite upbeat and optimistic of the deal being given the go ahead soon; that is the reason that in a meeting with the FARS news agency, which is also known to be the unofficial voice of the government in Tehran, was told by the Minister for Roads and Urban Development that there is a likelihood of the massive deal being given the green signal next week.

However, the American response was a far cry from the utterances of the Iranian Minister; it was a typical reply from a seasoned statesman wherein he said everything without conveying nothing, a statement that reflected the degree of discomfort that the Americans were feeling while trying to decide the right course of action to be adopted. It simply meant that there were many security concerns connected with this decision and its difficulty level.

This is the first time after the bitter confrontation of the 1979 Islamic Revolution that the United States is negotiating any mutual commercial deal with the Islamic country after the prolonged hostility and estrangement.

Also, this will be the opportunity which will break the ice and lead to a possible rearrangement of the world balance of power; so, to deal or not to deal is the dilemma being faced by the most powerful nation on earth since it negotiated with Tehran in the presence of five other world powers in the past year.

This deal would have come as a shot in the arm for the airlines of the Islamic republic which they need badly while a deal of this magnitude would have been beneficial for Boeing too.

The representatives of Boeing are quite tight-lipped about the deal which has the hawkish eyes of friends, foes and allies to determine the final outcome of this deal. It reiterated its corporate policy of not announcing any details while allowing the practice of its customers making the disclosure about the deals, if any that are struck.

However, they also emphasized the statutory requirement that the culmination of all the deals, if any, was only after the required permission has been granted by the administration of the United States.

Meanwhile, the competition is also keeping its fingers crossed since a deal of this magnitude is very vital to lift up any manufacturer irrespective of its financial status.

As stated earlier, last year saw the sanctions-freed Iran striking a multi-billion dollar deal with the French aircraft manufacturer, Airbus; the inventory ordered was 45 single-aisle commercial aircraft and 73 wide-bodied ones for a total amount of over $28 billion.

Answering queries about the likelihood of sealing the deal with Iran, the CEO of Boeing also confirmed that, as a commercial enterprise the Boeing management did enter into talks with the Iranians and it was estimated that the magnitude of the outlay would be as big as that sealed by Airbus.

He went on to add that since there were still some sanctions which prohibited the payments in U. S. dollars, the approval from the U. S. government has to be obtained.

Meanwhile, it is known that Republican Senators led by Roskam have been opposed to any involvement with Iran right from the time when the Nuclear deal was in the offing; they had even requested the company to desist from approaching the Iranians or making any deal since, according to them, this was the same country which had provided logistics support by using its planes to carry its money, weapons and soldiers and terrorists.

Meanwhile, the opinion of the chairman of the house Foreign Affairs committee also expressed his suspicion that the U. S. government would, in all likelihood, accord its assent to this deal. He equated the Obama administration to playing the role of a cheerleader to the Islamic republic.

Informed sources point to the desperation in the Iranian approach since they have not been able to upgrade their fleet of commercial aircraft which is almost in shambles; this would be instrumental in boosting tourism and domestic travel while providing employment opportunities to the local workforce.

Through this deal they will also be able to re-establish the severed links with U.S. and European financial institutions.

So, the considered opinion of the experts is also confirming the possibility that the opposition notwithstanding, the Iran deal with Boeing will go through.

A report by Reuters indicates that the total requirement of the Iranian airlines may be in the region of 400 aircraft.

The policy for licensing was spelt out by John Kirby, the spokesman for the State Department during a briefing on Tuesday wherein he informed media men that the licensing policy proves for taking decisions on every individual case according to its merits.

According to him, it is not unusual for major companies keep making efforts to sell their products to customers who are having a large wish list; but, in this particular case, the nuclear agreement with Iran will remain in the forefront as the motivating principle.

The Israeli reaction

The news of Iran striking a deal with Boeing has not been taken kindly by Israel and they have been threatening to resort to legal action against the U.S. aircraft manufacturing giant Boeing; a communication to this effect has been conveyed by Shurat Hadin, the Israel Law Center.
The NGO is an active representative of a large number of Israeli families who have been waging prolonged legal battles in United States with claims in their billions which they demand that Iran has to pay if it wants the deal to go ahead

The strange aspect was that they were not contemplating any such action against the French company, Airbus; it is also not clear how they can sue a commercial organization suing the Palestinian authority and Iran  for damages is another matter altogether.
Umrao Singh                                                    Umraoz.wordpress.com

Saturday, June 18, 2016

Written for:  Lars-Magnus Carlsson                             www.thephilippinepride.com?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss

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